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Charleston SC Real Estate Update – Market Stats

Charleston SC Real Estate Update – Market Stats

By on Mar 2, 2009 in The Charleston Real Estate Update | 0 comments

Welcome to the Century 21 Blog. Our goal is to present a monthly analysis of the greater Charleston area real estate market. We will look at the past 10-year, past 5-years, and 2008 -2009 monthly statistics. The analysis will review important market measurements including: unit sales, sales volume, days on market, list price, average sales price, median sold price, unit inventory level and months inventory. We will also study the MLS as a whole, by county and by individual areas including the major subdivisions and some subsections.

Regards,

Carl Caldeira & Dave Creaturo

Charleston Area 10-Year Review

During the past 10 years we’ve seen a tremendous development of our Charleston area real estate market. In 1998 there were 7,623 units sold, a sales volume of $1.2 billion, an average sales price of $158,462, with 2941 units in inventory and an average month’s inventory of 4.63 months. In 2008 the market had 8,893 units sold, $2.6 billion in sales volume, and an average selling price of $292,247 with 11,382 units in the inventory and 15.36 months inventory. In 2005 the market reached its highest unit sales and volume sales levels.

Let’s take a more detailed look at the market between 1998 and 2008. The greater Charleston area (CTAR MLS all areas) in 1998 had 7,623 unit sales. In 2002 the market started to take off. The unit sales increased from 8,316 to a record high of 18,075 in 2005 (an increase of 217% or 72% per year for 3 years. In 2005 the real estate market reached an all time high unit sales. In 2006 there was a 1,304 unit decrease to 16,771. Then over the next 2 years the market dropped from 16,771 to 8,893 units or a decrease of 188% (average 94% decrease per year).

From Carl

In the 5-year unit sales / month (Fig.2), we see the trend line and sales cycles. The slope of the trend line demonstrates the rapid unit sales decline from 2005 to 2008.

Also in this chart we can see the seasonality of the units sold during the year. The second and third quarters usually produce more sales than the first and fourth quarters. In 2008 the unit sales started well below the previous three years and after a 6 month decline ended back at the 2002 monthly unit sales level.

From Carl

In slide Fig. 3 I’ve stacked the years one on top of the other to demonstrate the monthly unit variance from 2005-2008. Here we can see that June 2005 had 1852 units compared to a high of only 913 units in 2008. It is also interesting to note that the second quarter of 2008 was much flatter than 2005-2006.

It is troublesome to see 2009 start out with only 400 units which is well below the 650 units in 2008.

From Carl

The greater Charleston market area reached an all time high dollar sales volume of $5,022,485,847 in 2005 up from $1,207,959,788 in 1998 for a 415% increase over the 6 year period (avg. 69% / year). From 2006 to the end of 2008 the total volume declined to $2,599,251,589 or 193% (avg. 97% / year).

From Carl

In 2005 and 2006 the monthly dollar volume reached a high point over $550,000,000 while 2008 peaked around $275,000,000 and had a low of $125,000,000.

From Carl

The second half of 2008 saw a sharp decline in volume. January 2009 started out at only $100,000,000 which was far below previous years 2005-2007.

From Carl

The average sales price increased from $158,462 in 1998 to $298,604 2006 or 188% (avg. 20.9% over 9 years). The average sales price declined to $292,247 in 2008 by 2.2%. The median sales price for the area was $122,550 in 1998 and by 2007 it rose to $207,500 or 169% (avg. 18.8% / year). The median price fell to $200,000 in 2008 or 3.75%. The Charleston area as a whole has been able to maintain its home value compared to other areas in the country. We should also note that some price ranges have had more discounting and some CTAR areas have lost more value.

From Carl

The average sales price increased from $158,462 in 1998 to $298,604 2006 or 188% (avg. 20.9% over 9 years). The average sales price declined to $292,247 in 2008 by 2.2%. The median sales price for the area was $122,550 in 1998 and by 2007 it rose to $207,500 or 169% (avg. 18.8% / year). The median price fell to $200,000 in 2008 or 3.75%. The Charleston area as a whole has been able to maintain its home value compared to other areas in the country. We should also note that some price ranges have had more discounting and some CTAR areas have lost more value.

From Carl

In Fig. 9A we can see that the average list price is higher than the average sold price. The sellers are still reluctant to list their homes closer to the market price. This often results in properties taking longer to sell. Also note that 2009 started out with a median sales price below $180,000 which was down from January 2008.

From Carl

To further emphasize the point of percent of sold price verses list price, we see in Fig 10 that the actual sales price declined from a monthly high in 2005 of 98% of list to 95.5% in 2008.

From Carl

2009 started out below 94% of the list to sold price.

From Carl

The unit inventory grew from 4,382 units in 2004 to 11,382 units at the end of 2008 or 260% (65%/year for 4 years).

From Carl

The huge build up in inventory started in January 2006 at 5,000 units and reached a monthly high of 11,700 units in April of 2008.

From Carl

The unit inventory started out at 11,000 in 2008 and dropped to a low of 10,600 in December. January 2009 was slightly lower than January 2008.

From Carl

By 2008 the average month’s inventory rose to 15.36 months. Month’s inventory is the expected average time to sell a new listing. It is calculated by the amount of homes sold per month divided by the total unit inventory.

From Carl

During the 2005 market boom sales month’s inventory was below 4 months. As sales slowed and unit inventory grew the inventory months reached to 22 months by November 2008.

From Carl

January 2008 started out at 17 months and in January 2009 reached a 5-year high of 28 months.

From Carl

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